Analyst notes Hyperliquid's $319 price target requires protocol earnings growth to outpace token supply dilution, with Multicoin Capital reducing holdings amid market caution.
DeFi & Yields ·
Hyperliquid's HYPE token would need to grow its protocol earnings faster than its token supply expands to reach a $319 price target set by Multicoin Capital, according to analysis shared by trader Crypto Patel. Multicoin's valuation model projects derivatives volume climbing to $20.2 trillion by 2028, which at a 20x multiple on roughly $8 billion in annual earnings would yield a $160 billion valuation. Divided across an adjusted supply of 502 million tokens, this produces the $319 figure—more than four times HYPE's current level.
The core challenge, as framed by Patel, is whether Hyperliquid's earnings growth can outpace token dilution. Multicoin's base case assumes 3.28 basis points on gross perps fees and 32 percent market share of decentralized derivatives volume, metrics that align closely with current on-chain data. However, a bear case assuming slower derivatives growth places HYPE near $109, while a bull case built on 50 percent compound annual growth reaches $689.
Despite these projections, signals of caution have emerged. HYPE reached an all-time high of $89.60 on September 6 but has since declined to around $79. Multicoin itself has been reducing exposure, selling 10 percent of its 4 million tokens in early September, while spot ETF flows for HYPE have cooled with net outflows recorded and total net assets slipping from over $480 million to roughly $434 million. Whether earnings can sustainably outpace token supply growth remains unresolved.