Ark Research Director predicts Hyperliquid could shift 75% of trading volume to RWAs and commodities within a year as onchain derivatives gain product-market fit.
DeFi & Yields ·
Lorenzo Valente, Director of Research at Ark, has predicted that real-world assets and commodities could represent 75% of Hyperliquid's trading volume within a year. Valente characterized Hyperliquid as a competitive platform that has demonstrated product-market fit for onchain derivatives, citing recent trading activity in oil during geopolitical events and pre-IPO stocks during corporate transactions as evidence of demand for non-crypto assets on the platform.
Valente's assessment reflects a shift in what he views as feasible for onchain trading. Two to three years ago, competing directly with centralized exchanges on major cryptocurrencies was considered essential to attract traders. That constraint has loosened within RWAs, where Hyperliquid has shown capacity to capture substantial volume by leveraging its around-the-clock global accessibility.
What remains unclear is whether this trajectory will materialize. The prediction depends on sustained product development, regulatory evolution for onchain RWA trading, and market adoption rates that cannot yet be verified. No timeline or conditions triggering a shift away from this outcome have been specified.