DefiLlama launches Risk Scenario Planning tool mapping external dependencies and maximum loss scenarios for DeFi vault deposits, now live for 20 Morpho vaults.
DeFi & Yields ·
DefiLlama has introduced a risk scenario planning tool designed to map external dependencies embedded in DeFi vault deposits—including oracles, bridges, collateral tokens, sequencers, and role holders—and model maximum potential losses from each failure point. The tool is now live across 20 Morpho vaults, with interactive dashboards displaying realistic loss scenarios, exit timelines, oracle exposure, and smart contract risks.
The tool provides granular exposure data for specific vaults. For the GTUSDCP vault on Base, a 50 percent collateral crash could result in realistic worst-case losses of $158.46 million, while a smart contract bug is modeled to reach up to $428.13 million in an extreme scenario. The vault's collateral composition is heavily concentrated in cbBTC at $352.04 million (82 percent), with additional exposure to WETH, cbETH, and wstETH. Oracle dependencies across Chainlink feeds total up to $49.28 million in potential drainable assets through a 4-of-9 Safe multisig controlling feeds; a 30 percent collateral drop vault-wide could generate approximately $70.32 million in estimated bad debt.
The extent to which the tool will expand to other vault protocols or platforms remains unspecified. No committed backstop exists to cover losses in the analyzed Morpho vaults, and governance changes impose a 7-day timelock on exit mechanisms.