Galaxy Research analysis shows 69.2% of Polymarket retail traders lost money, with $338.9M in aggregate losses across 2.9M accounts.
DeFi & Yields ·
Galaxy Research examined onchain settlement data from Polymarket's international platform and found that roughly 2.9 million retail accounts ended in losses, representing 69.2% of the cohort analyzed. The aggregate loss tally reached $338.9 million. Analysis showed divergent behavior after unfavorable outcomes: 15.2% of accounts went dormant for 30 days following a loss, compared to 6.1% inactivity after a win. Topic concentration also emerged as a trait in the user base, with 44.1% of traders funneling more than 60% of their volume into a single category.
Profitability varied significantly by specialization. Among specialist traders, sports accounted for 47% but recorded the lowest returns at 25.1%, while tech and science specialists reached 41.2% profitability despite a smaller sample. Median position sizing distinguished winners from losers: winning traders deployed $13.96 per position versus $10 for those who lost money. Holding duration, however, showed no meaningful correlation with profit or loss outcomes.
The research, based on data curated by Stork, leaves open questions about why behavioral differences emerged post-loss and whether category concentration reflects deliberate expertise or accidental overexposure.