Glassnode analysis: BTC range-bound between $62K–$65K support and $83K–$86K resistance, with $14B Sep 25 options expiry positioning overhead supply as key technical hurdle.
DeFi & Yields ·
Bitcoin encountered resistance in the $83K–$86K band after an August 19 short squeeze lifted it above $80K, with prices subsequently falling back toward $76K. Glassnode analysis flagged that supply in profit had climbed to 68% from 65% in May when BTC traded near $78K, suggesting mounting selling pressure. The $62K–$65K floor marks the key support level.
Options positioning reveals mixed near-term sentiment alongside stable longer-term hedging demand. The 7-day 25-delta skew jumped sharply during the rally as traders accumulated upside exposure, then retreated to neutral levels, while the 180-day skew held steady. The September 25 expiry concentrated roughly $14 billion in open interest on Deribit and IBIT, with notable concentrations above $80K.
Bitcoin is expected to trade within the established range until long-term holder supply overhead is cleared. The stability in longer-dated volatility structures contrasts with the short-term reversion, leaving the path to higher resistance dependent on absorption of the identified supply zone.