NDV founder Jason Huang discusses BTC's four-year cycle, Strategy debt risks, and predicts a bear market bottom only after a defining event.
DeFi & Yields ·
Jason Huang, founder of NDV, attributes Bitcoin's recent decline to multiple pressures: the residual effects of the asset's four-year cycle, pullback in U.S. equities, and liquidity strain tied to debt at MicroStrategy. He does not view current levels as a true bottom and expects a defining capitulation event—comparable in scale to the FTX collapse—before the market establishes a durable floor. NDV's second fund has returned more than 20% year-to-date, trading crypto alongside commodities such as oil, gold, and silver.
Huang expresses near-term caution while maintaining long-term optimism about stablecoins, which he sees as crypto's clearest practical innovation with substantial adoption potential ahead. He remains wary of crowded trades in AI stocks, U.S. equities broadly, semiconductors, and anticipated IPO enthusiasm. MicroStrategy's recent Bitcoin sale of 32 units triggered market selling, though Huang rejects the notion that founders retain decisive control during periods of uncertainty; rather, entrepreneurs often have limited choice but to manage liquidity pressures as conditions evolve.
What remains unclear is the precise magnitude of further downside, the timing of any defining event that could signal capitulation, and whether current macroeconomic tightening will persist long enough to force the widespread despair Huang deems necessary for a durable bottom.