Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket hit $2.7B weekly notional volume driven by Bitcoin price bets, with crypto now the second-largest category after sports.
DeFi & Yields ·
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket recorded $2.7 billion in weekly notional volume across crypto-related contracts, marking a record high driven primarily by short-term Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency price wagers. Crypto has climbed to the second-largest category by volume on both platforms, trailing only sports betting.
The surge reflects a broader shift among crypto exchanges into prediction markets as traditional spot trading volumes face headwinds. Coinbase operates its prediction market offering through a partnership with Kalshi, exemplifying this expansion strategy. Yet regulatory uncertainty presents a potential constraint: legal challenges to sports contracts across several U.S. states could influence how aggressively crypto exchanges pursue further growth in the prediction market space.
The timing of this volume milestone and its durability as a trend remain open questions, as does whether regulatory pressure will materially slow the industry's prediction market ambitions.