Research shows low-float, high-FDV token launches underperform significantly, with tokens above $1B FDV declining 81% median over one year.
Ecosystem ·
Research analyzing over 2,300 token listings since 2013 reveals that launches with the highest fully diluted valuations have posted the worst returns. Tokens listing above $1 billion FDV declined a median 81% within one year, while those with floats under 20% fell roughly 75% over the same period, compared to approximately 45% declines for tokens with floats between 30 and 50%.
The pattern reflects a structural shift since the ICO era. Median circulating supply at listing fell from 38% in 2017 to 13% by 2020 and has only partially recovered to the high teens or low 20s in recent years. As valuation at launch rises, the proportion of tokens made available to the public shrinks correspondingly—from 97% for sub-$10 million launches down to 13% for billion-dollar ones. This inverse relationship suggests the industry has standardized on concentrating early supply among private investors before public trading begins.
The median listing trades below its launch price within three days and reaches a 50% loss by the 90-day mark. The research suggests better outcomes may require pricing tokens lower at public listing, releasing sufficient supply to enable genuine price discovery, and expanding initial access beyond early concentrated holders.