Analyst Willy Woo argues Bitcoin's price cycle may be shifting from four-year halving-driven patterns to six-to-eight-year cycles influenced by traditional markets, as supply shocks diminish.
Macro & Markets ·
On-chain analyst Willy Woo has put forward the view that Bitcoin may be transitioning away from its historically dominant four-year price cycle, driven by halving events, toward a six-to-eight-year cycle aligned with traditional financial market dynamics. Woo attributes this potential shift to the declining magnitude of Bitcoin's supply shocks following each halving. Following the April 2024 halving event, newly mined Bitcoin represents approximately 0.8% of existing supply annually, a figure set to drop further to roughly 0.4% after the next halving in early 2028. As new issuance becomes increasingly marginal relative to the total circulating supply, Woo argues that the halving's historical capacity to anchor Bitcoin's price movements diminishes, leaving the asset more exposed to the debt and liquidity cycles that govern traditional markets.
The thesis challenges longstanding market orthodoxy, though not all observers agree with the conclusion. Galaxy Research examined the same evidence in June and determined that Bitcoin's four-year pattern remains detectable in price data, noting that the October 2025 peak occurred roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving—consistent with historical precedent. Galaxy's key observation is that while the cycle persists, each iteration shows diminishing volatility; prior bear markets produced drawdowns near 85%, 84%, and 77%, compared to the roughly 53% decline to July 1, 2025.
The debate reflects deeper uncertainty about how Bitcoin's market structure is evolving. The concentration of supply in institutional holders—spot Bitcoin ETFs alone hold approximately 1.3 million BTC, over 6% of circulating supply, while public companies hold more than a million additional units—has fundamentally reshaped price discovery mechanisms. Whether this structural change will eventually decouple Bitcoin from halving-driven cycles remains an open question without definitive resolution across the analyst community.