Arthur Hayes argues US Treasury buybacks and yield curve control will drive liquidity into Bitcoin, potentially pushing it to hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Macro & Markets ·
In an August 23, 2026 video interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes laid out a scenario in which Treasury Secretary Bessent's expansion of long-end bond buybacks will inject liquidity into markets and redirect capital toward Bitcoin. Hayes noted the 10-year yield has reached 4.75%, with 5% potentially in sight, and characterized the doubled buyback operation as structurally similar to past yield management efforts.
Hayes contended that despite economic signals pointing toward rate increases—including strong inflation, steady growth, and the 2-year yield trading 50–60 basis points above the effective federal funds rate—the Fed will refrain from hiking because the Treasury must continue issuing short-term bills to sustain market functioning. He framed buybacks as a mechanism that increases liquidity, causing more money to chase finite assets including Bitcoin.
Hayes projected that if markets develop genuine concern about yield curve control, Bitcoin could experience rapid appreciation to hundreds of thousands of dollars. His argument rests on the premise that Treasury operations will create excess fiat chasing limited supply, with cryptocurrencies positioned as beneficiaries. The timing and magnitude of such a move remain unspecified in his commentary.