Arthur Hayes warns that equity dilution from AI IPOs could pressure stock prices and crypto liquidity short-term, but sees long-term upside if central banks ease monetary policy.
Macro & Markets ·
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has outlined a scenario where equity dilution following AI company IPOs could create near-term headwinds for both equities and crypto assets. In his latest analysis, Hayes examines how share unlocks at firms such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI may exert downward pressure on stock valuations and increase debt costs across the AI sector. He estimates early investors in Anthropic could experience up to 83% equity dilution by June 2027.
The mechanism Hayes identifies runs through financial conditions: falling AI stock prices could constrain bank lending capacity, which would reduce the supply of dollar liquidity and create headwinds for Bitcoin and other crypto holdings. His investment firm Maelstrom is taking a cautious stance, waiting for clarity on liquidity trends before deploying capital.
Hayes does not rule out a longer-term reversal, however. If dilution pressures escalate into systemic instability within the AI industry, central banks might respond with monetary easing—a scenario he views as constructive for Bitcoin valuations over time. The timing and magnitude of any such policy shift remain uncertain.