Bernstein forecasts prediction market volumes reaching $10 trillion annually by 2035, with financial assets overtaking sports betting.
Macro & Markets ·
Bernstein projects prediction market volumes will reach $10 trillion annually by 2035, with a significant shift in composition away from sports betting. According to the analysis, sports' share of total prediction market volume is expected to decline to 38% over the same period, while financial assets including crypto, equities, and commodities are forecast to account for 49% of activity.
The forecast reflects a structural reallocation within prediction markets as crypto and traditional financial instruments gain prominence relative to sports wagering. This shift suggests the category is maturing beyond its initial sports-betting focus toward broader financial hedging and discovery mechanisms.
Key uncertainties remain around regulatory adoption rates across jurisdictions, the actual pace of institutional participation in prediction markets, and whether the total addressable market will expand as forecast or face adoption headwinds in specific regions or asset classes.