Bernstein forecasts prediction market volumes reaching $10 trillion annually by 2035, with financial assets overtaking sports betting.
Macro & Markets ·
Bernstein has substantially raised its outlook for prediction markets, now projecting annual volumes to reach $10 trillion by 2035, a tenfold increase from the firm's $1 trillion forecast made five months earlier in April. The revision reflects rapid expansion in the sector; volumes are expected to grow at roughly 70% annually through 2035, with the market anticipated to process $410 billion in 2026 alone.
The composition of traded contracts is shifting significantly. Sports betting, which represented 61% of volume in 2025, is projected to decline to 38% by 2035, while financial-asset contracts tied to crypto, stocks, and commodities are forecast to rise from 12% to 49%, becoming the dominant category. Bernstein's analysts highlighted emerging product types such as KPI markets and perpetual futures expanding beyond crypto into commodities and single-stock offerings, enabling traders to bet on specific corporate metrics or hold positions indefinitely.
The timing of full U.S. regulatory clarity for sports prediction markets remains uncertain, with Bernstein indicating it is unlikely before 2027 or 2028, despite platforms already processing substantial trading volume. Whether institutional adoption and new product development will sustain the projected growth trajectory remains to be seen.