BIT Research predicts Bitcoin could reach $185K–$215K based on historical trends, citing improved ETF inflows and reduced selling pressure as BTC trades above $83K.
Macro & Markets ·
BIT Research published a report arguing that Bitcoin's bear market has ended, forecasting an upside scenario of $185,000 to $215,000 based on historical cycles and market structure analysis. The firm cited a cycle low in late July around $62,900, identified through Elliott Wave analysis and RSI divergence patterns similar to the 2022 bottom. Bitcoin now trades above $83,000, marking a 42% quarterly gain, and has reclaimed its March 2024 high of $73,084.
The prediction rests on several mechanical observations. The True Market Mean—the estimated average price paid by holders—stands at $76,897, meaning the typical holder and spot ETF buyer have returned to profit, which BIT argues removes a source of selling pressure. Additionally, improved ETF inflows of $2.8 billion in September have contributed to the rally. The firm's debt model references a valuation near $105,000, citing rising US federal debt and Treasury yields as potential drivers of capital toward Bitcoin and gold. A stronger dollar remains the primary headwind, though BIT suggests past dollar rallies have historically pressured gold more than Bitcoin.
The $185,000–$215,000 range derives from applying historical multiples to the cost basis. If Bitcoin climbs 1.3 to 1.5 times above the $142,000 mark (representing an 85% gain from the True Market Mean), the calculation yields that range. BIT noted timing remains highly uncertain, with the last cycle taking roughly 19 months from the 85% level to its peak. The firm cautioned that after a fast climb, a pause or larger pullback remains possible in the near term.