Bitcoin bounces off key support despite active death cross, with prediction markets still leaning bearish.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin has recovered to $66,208 after the 200-period exponential moving average held as support following a decline to the $53K–$54K range. The recovery signals real demand at that technical floor for long-term holders monitoring the charts. However, a death cross—where the 50-period EMA sits below the 200-period EMA—remains active on the daily timeframe, indicating the shorter-term trend remains weaker than the longer-term trend.
The technical picture aligns with sentiment in derivatives markets. On Myriad, 64.6% of traders bet Bitcoin will hit $55K before reaching $84K, reflecting persistent bearish positioning. This conviction correlates with a 900-hour negative Coinbase Premium streak, suggesting institutional buyers in the U.S. have maintained caution over extended periods rather than showing renewed demand.
The macroeconomic environment remains mixed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled progress on the Clarity Act crypto bill ahead of an August 7 congressional recess, offering a potential regulatory tailwind. Yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 33—cautious but not panicked—as major tech earnings from Alphabet and Tesla influence broader market appetite for risk, leaving Bitcoin caught between competing forces without clear directional conviction.