Bitcoin posted average gains of 54% in the year following US midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin recorded twelve-month gains of 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% following the US midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022 respectively, according to analysis, yielding an average return of 54% across the three periods. The pattern suggests a potential relationship between midterm election cycles and subsequent cryptocurrency performance, though the mechanism remains unspecified.
The observation arrives amid elevated retail risk appetite, reflected in stock allocation levels reaching their highest point since December 2017. Whether this correlation reflects structural economic shifts following election outcomes, seasonal market dynamics, or other factors driving post-midterm asset performance remains unclear. The sample size of three election cycles also limits the statistical robustness of the pattern.
What is not yet established is whether historical midterm performance can reliably predict future Bitcoin behavior or whether additional variables—monetary policy changes, broader market sentiment, or regulatory developments—better explain the observed gains in those particular windows.