Bitcoin rallies sharply but prediction market traders remain cautious on longer-term price direction.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin surged to $71,556 on Thursday, gaining 3.26% on the day and extending a two-day rally that marked its sharpest five-month jump. The move upended near-term prediction-market sentiment, with traders on Myriad flipping from roughly 70% bearish toward a $55,000 dump just days prior to a near 50-50 split between bullish ($84K) and bearish outcomes by Wednesday afternoon.
Longer-term and cross-platform prediction markets, however, tell a more cautious story. Polymarket's year-end contract prices a 56% chance Bitcoin touches $55,000 before year-end and only 51% odds of reaching $75,000, while an August contract on the same platform put odds of breaking $75,000 at 47%. The disparity suggests near-term traders got caught off guard by the rally and repositioned, rather than fundamentally shifting conviction about Bitcoin's path forward.
Technical resistance levels now frame the next moves: Bitcoin must hold above $70,284 to open room toward $73,245; a break below $68,000 would trap price back in the range that has constrained it since June. Prediction-market volume hit record levels as hedgers entered positions, making the near-term odds shift as much a record of surprise liquidations as a forecast of trader conviction going forward.