Bitcoin's on-chain indicators show bullish signals with 67% net-long positioning, but price has fallen 32% year-over-year with recent $7k decline amid profit-taking.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin's on-chain regime model has shifted to a 67% net-long allocation for two consecutive months, with five indicators including short-term realized price, True Market Mean, MVRV at 0.20, and NUPL now occupying historically bullish levels last seen in October 2025. The signals suggest potential cycle recovery, though Bitcoin has declined roughly 32% year-over-year and dropped nearly $7,000 after failing to sustain above $87,000, driven by profit-taking exceeding $1 billion and spot ETF outflows. The bullish indicators remain incomplete, as some have only recently crossed their thresholds and a sustained break below key price levels would signal weakening recovery momentum.