Bitcoin's current bear market is the first to never close below Realized Price, indicating average holders remained profitable throughout.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin has moved above resistance levels that constrained it throughout the year, marking a milestone in the asset's current bear market cycle. According to on-chain analysis, this is the first native bear market in Bitcoin's history that never traded below Realized Price—a metric representing the average acquisition cost across all coins in circulation. The distinction means that holders, measured as a collective group, remained profitable even at the cycle's lowest point.
Realized Price serves as a baseline for assessing whether the average participant experienced losses. Historically, bear markets have seen prices dip below this threshold, pushing cumulative holders underwater. The current cycle's behavior differs in that respect, suggesting either that selling pressure has been distributed differently or that accumulation patterns have shifted compared to previous downturns.
Open questions include whether this metric reflects structural changes in Bitcoin's holder base—such as the role of spot exchange-traded funds or long-term hodlers—or whether it is incidental to this particular market cycle. Additional context on sell pressure levels and potential price targets is outlined in a separate weekly on-chain report.