Bitcoin shows early bull cycle signals with a 24% surge to $80K since August 17, though confirmation requires a close above $83K amid mixed technical signals.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin has climbed roughly 24% since mid-August, reaching $80,000 and prompting analytics assessments of early bull-cycle signals. The move was bolstered by US Treasury announcements of increased long-term bond buybacks and statements from President Trump regarding potential federal Bitcoin holdings. Multiple market indicators have shifted into bullish territory, with one firm's Bull Score rising to 80 from 30 during a single week—its highest reading since October 2025, when BTC traded near $124,000.
The bull-market assessment remains conditional. Bitcoin must close above its 365-day moving average, currently around $83,000, to confirm the cycle shift. Simultaneously, underlying demand metrics have expanded at their fastest monthly pace in months, and spot and futures buying have risen in tandem for the first time since early October 2025. Eight of ten key indicators are now in bullish territory.
Headwinds persist despite the gains. Trader unrealized profits reached 20.5%, matching levels last seen in June 2025, while large holders banked a record $614 million in gains on a single day in late August. Increased deposits of Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP on trading platforms suggest some holders may be positioning for sales, creating potential near-term selling pressure if prices encounter resistance above current levels.