Bitcoin surged above $80,000 with its strongest monthly gain since November 2024, but Fidelity warns the bear market may extend to November 2026.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin climbed past $80,000 this month, posting a 4.3% gain that represents its strongest monthly performance since November 2024. The move has fueled optimism that the bear market may have concluded, though Fidelity cautioned that historical cycles do not guarantee an end to the downturn and pointed to a potential market bottom around November 2026.
Fidelity's analysis highlights the uncertainty around timing and catalysts. The firm noted that regulation and institutional adoption rates could meaningfully shape price trajectories going forward, and emphasized that recent strength alone does not confirm a cycle shift. No definitive break below key resistance levels has yet been observed that would decisively signal a bear-market close.
A widening gap between adoption metrics and price action offers one counterpoint to bearish forecasts. Stablecoin transaction volumes have surpassed Visa's throughput despite ongoing price pressure in the broader market, suggesting growing utility and network activity independent of price recovery. Whether this disconnect will persist or whether adoption and valuations will realign remains uncertain.