Bitcoin jumps toward $87,000 after soft jobs data lifts Fed pause bets
Macro & Markets ·
A weaker-than-expected US payrolls report sent bitcoin climbing as traders raised the odds of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady.
US employers added just 29,000 non-farm payrolls last month, far below the 90,000 figure economists had anticipated, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics cited in a CryptoPotato report. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, also above expectations, while month-over-month earnings growth came in at 0.1%, short of the 0.3% forecast. The figures marked a sharp reversal from the prior month's report, which had shown a surprisingly strong labor market and fueled talk of a possible rate hike.
Bitcoin moved almost immediately on the release, climbing from above $86,000 and briefly touching $87,250 before settling to flirt with the $87,000 level. The rapid price reaction reflects how closely traders are tracking labor-market signals for clues on Federal Reserve policy, since a cooling jobs picture typically reduces the case for tighter monetary policy.
Prediction markets responded by pushing the probability of a Fed rate pause to 85%, a notable shift from the prior month, when a hotter jobs report had driven expectations toward an actual rate increase. The jump in pause odds suggests traders now see reduced near-term pressure on the central bank to act, a dynamic that has historically supported risk assets including bitcoin.
The move adds to a broader run of bullish price action already underway. A separate report from Decrypt noted bitcoin had already surged to $86,000 on cooler inflation data and dovish Fed signals, with additional key economic data due October 14. Together, the two reports point to a market increasingly sensitive to incoming macro data as a driver of short-term price swings.
What remains unclear is whether the softer labor data reflects a sustained economic slowdown or a temporary dip, and how the Fed will weigh it against the inflation data still to come. Traders will be watching the October 14 release, along with any official Fed commentary, to see whether the current pause odds hold or shift again.