Bitcoin testing $81,000 as October Fed rate hike odds climb to 29% amid inflation concerns.
Macro & Markets ·
Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on Thursday as markets absorbed stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data that renewed expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate increases. The monthly consumer price increase of 0.6% in September marked the largest monthly gain in five months, driven largely by energy costs. Traders responded by raising the probability of an October rate hike to 29.3%, up from 17.7% a week prior, though futures markets still point toward December for the next move.
Analysts attribute Bitcoin's weakness to multiple overlapping pressures. Tim Sun of HashKey Group pointed to shifting buyer composition as a deeper factor: spot exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries—the primary sources of incremental demand over the past two years—have lost momentum as rising borrowing costs erode the economics of corporate Bitcoin accumulation. Stephen Wundke of quantitative investment firm Algoz expects price consolidation in the $76,000 to $83,000 band through October absent a fresh catalyst.
The path forward hinges on whether institutional capital flows stabilize and whether corporate treasuries can improve their financing conditions, according to analysts interviewed. Sun noted that traditional banking involvement has provided some long-term support, yet a sustained breakout requires either renewed spot ETF inflows or material shifts in macro sentiment.