Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues Bitcoin benefits from both AI boom and bust scenarios due to anticipated monetary expansion.
Macro & Markets ·
Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, contends that bitcoin stands to gain in multiple economic scenarios tied to artificial intelligence's trajectory. According to his analysis, if an AI-driven economic slowdown occurs, central banks would likely cut interest rates and expand monetary supply, conditions historically supportive of bitcoin valuations.
The argument hinges on the relationship between monetary policy and bitcoin's performance. Hougan expects an initial market selloff should an AI recession materialize, but anticipates recovery as rate cuts and monetary expansion unfold in response. His reasoning suggests bitcoin functions as a hedge against the monetary accommodation typically deployed during downturns.
The thesis leaves unspecified how bitcoin might perform if AI delivers sustained productivity gains without triggering a recession, or what timeline Hougan expects for either scenario to materialize. The claim also does not address how quickly or to what extent monetary policy shifts would need to occur for bitcoin to recover from any initial losses.