On-chain analyst Crypto Dan points to declining UTXO loss data and muted market reaction to negative macro news as signals that Bitcoin's bear market may be ending.
Macro & Markets ·
On-chain analyst Crypto Dan has identified a sharp reduction in the proportion of Bitcoin addresses holding at a loss, arguing that declines of this magnitude have historically preceded the end of bear markets rather than producing only temporary recoveries. The observation emerged following two recent macroeconomic pressures on crypto markets: a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase and the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act in a September 15 vote. Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin has remained supported above $71,300, with the asset trading near $76,000 at the time of reporting.
The resilience has drawn attention from market observers tracking sentiment shifts. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that Bitcoin gained roughly 38 percent between July and mid-September even as betting odds on the CLARITY Act deteriorated. Multiple analysts characterized the muted market response to unfavorable news as evidence of a psychological transition, with some framing this indifference as the strongest indicator that the bear market has concluded.
Technical resistance levels remain contested, with Bitcoin repeatedly rejected at $79,800—described as the break-even point for invested capital—while the $71,300 support was tested twice in late 2023 before the subsequent market cycle began. Volume has contracted sharply, declining roughly 24 percent to approximately $29.5 billion. Over longer timeframes, Bitcoin shows a 19 percent gain in the past month offset by a near-35 percent decline over the prior year.