Fed Chair Warsh expected to announce first rate hike since July 2023 today, marking unusual policy shift despite Trump administration's rate-cut expectations.
Macro & Markets ·
Markets are pricing in a 93% probability that Fed Chair Warsh will announce the first rate hike since July 2023 today, marking an unexpected policy reversal given that Warsh was appointed by President Trump with expectations for rate cuts. Historical data shows that when hike expectations have reached this level since 2008, the Fed has consistently delivered. An unchanged decision would represent the largest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994.