Fed rate expectations have swung 200 basis points hawkish in 9 months — markets now pricing 4 hikes by July 2027 versus 4 cuts expected a year ago.
Macro & Markets ·
Markets have shifted expectations by 200 basis points over nine months, moving from pricing 4 interest rate cuts by July 2027 at the start of 2026 to now expecting 4 rate hikes by that date. This represents the most hawkish Fed policy expectations since March 2022, reflecting market belief that inflation will persist and rates will remain elevated.