Fed rate-hike odds rise to 58–60% for September 16 after stronger-than-expected August jobs data, with CPI/PPI prints pending.
Macro & Markets ·
The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing a 58.4% probability of a 0.25% rate hike on September 16 following stronger-than-expected August employment data. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 against a prior estimate of 56,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. Fed chair Kevin Warsh's recent remarks suggesting that recent inflation improvements do not yet justify a policy reassessment have reinforced hawkish market positioning.
Upcoming Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index prints scheduled for Friday and Thursday respectively carry significant weight for rate-path expectations heading into the Fed's September 16 decision. A stronger labor market historically reduces urgency for rate cuts, and with core inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, markets have maintained a hawkish bias despite public calls from some officials and policymakers for continued rate-hike pauses.
Bitcoin has held just below the $80,000 level despite the shift toward higher rate-hike odds. Whether inflation data this week confirms or disrupts current market expectations remains uncertain, as does the ultimate impact on risk assets broadly. The confluence of technical signals—including a supertrend indicator "buy" signal—and macro crosscurrents leaves the immediate direction of both rates and crypto positioning unresolved.