Fed rate-hike odds surge to 85% after hot August CPI, pressuring Bitcoin and risk assets.
Macro & Markets ·
August core consumer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, lifting CME FedWatch-implied odds of a September 16 Federal Reserve rate increase to approximately 85–86.5%, according to market pricing. Bitcoin has traded within a narrow $76,400–$78,200 range as investors adjust positions ahead of the decision.
A confirmed rate hike would increase the cost of leveraged positions and could create headwinds for risk assets more broadly. However, the impact may be partially offset by ongoing delays in U.S. Treasury bond buyback programs, which could keep some liquidity in markets even as borrowing rates rise.
Markets remain uncertain whether the Fed will ultimately act, with odds at 85% indicating material but not overwhelming conviction. The outcome hinges on how officials interpret the latest inflation data and forward guidance in the days leading up to the announcement.