Galaxy Research argues Bitcoin's bear market ended in June 2026 with accumulation phase underway, citing 50-week moving average holds and reduced long-term holder selling.
Macro & Markets ·
Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research contends that Bitcoin's bear market concluded in June and the asset has entered an accumulation phase, describing the current environment as favorable for acquiring and holding the cryptocurrency. The argument rests on three technical and market observations: Bitcoin has recorded five consecutive weekly closes above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks beneath it, a reclamation pattern that historically preceded gains within one year; the most recent downturn represented a 53% decline, the mildest on record compared with prior cycles ranging from 77% to 93%; and onchain metrics show Bitcoin's market value never dipped below its realized value, a first occurrence across any bear market cycle.
The broader macroeconomic backdrop strengthens the thesis. Federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.31% this month, its highest level since 2007. Selling pressure is moderating as dormant coins have transferred at approximately 34,000 BTC monthly this year, half the 2024 rate, and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds accumulated 87,000 BTC since the June trough despite holdings declining only 11% from their peak during a 53% price drop.
Uncertainty persists around near-term price action. Bitcoin has oscillated around $80,000 amid shifting institutional flows—spot ETF inflows shifted to outflows this week—and recent inflation data has reignited expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate increases.