Glassnode analysis shows 4M BTC purchased above $85K by U.S. spot ETF holders may act as a resistance level, as Bitcoin trades near their average cost basis.
Macro & Markets ·
Long-term Bitcoin holders own approximately 4 million BTC purchased between $85,000 and $118,000, predominantly acquired in 2025, according to on-chain analytics from Glassnode. That cohort sits on unrealized losses as Bitcoin trades near $81,600. U.S. spot ETF holders maintain an average cost basis just under $82,000, placing them similarly close to break-even. The $85,000 price band has reversed Bitcoin four times this year and the asset has closed above it only five days since January, suggesting potential resistance if recovery attempts that level.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote on Wednesday, with traders pricing in a greater than 70% probability of a December hike beforehand. Persistent U.S. Treasury yields near 5% continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin relative to risk-free assets. Compressed funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures have also squeezed returns on spot-and-carry arbitrage strategies, prompting nine hedge funds and banks to reduce combined spot ETF exposure by 68,000 BTC.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of approximately $424 million from Monday through Wednesday, reversing a $635 million outflow from October 22. The mechanics connecting rate expectations, Treasury yields, and funding rate compression to ETF flows remain in flux, and whether the $85,000 level holds as traders test recovery remains unresolved.