Goldman Sachs and Citi expect a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16, with CME FedWatch showing 86% probability.
Macro & Markets ·
Goldman Sachs and Citi expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its September 16 meeting. Market pricing reflected in CME FedWatch data showed over 86% probability assigned to a rate increase ahead of the FOMC decision.
The elevated probability reflects investor positioning on monetary policy tightening. Prior to the scheduled meeting, Trump stated the U.S. should maintain the lowest interest rates globally, signaling potential tension between executive commentary and anticipated Fed action.
It remains unclear whether the Fed will ultimately act as markets have priced, or whether incoming economic data in the days before September 16 will shift probabilities materially.