Macro analyst predicts Fed will pause rather than hike tomorrow amid divided market expectations and geopolitical uncertainty.
Macro & Markets ·
Interest rate futures show a roughly 30% probability of a rate hike and 70% probability of a rate cut ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision, marking one of the most divided market expectations in recent history compared to the near-unanimous consensus typical of Fed meetings since March 2020. Fed Chair Warsh has removed forward guidance, leaving markets with limited clarity on the central bank's direction. A macro analyst expects the Fed to pause rather than hike, citing factors including presidential pressure for rate cuts, the labor market's weakness, and classification of energy-related inflation as temporary rather than structural.