NYDIG analysis suggests Bitcoin could bottom near $38,000–$39,000 in 2025–2026 if the current drawdown mirrors historical four-year cycle corrections.
Macro & Markets ·
NYDIG has analyzed Bitcoin's recent price action against the pattern of corrections that occurred in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 four-year cycles, suggesting the current drawdown may follow a similar trajectory. Under this framework, if the present decline matches the severity of those prior bear markets, Bitcoin could find a bottom in the USD 38,000–USD 39,000 range during 2025–2026.
Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak of approximately USD 126,000, marking a significant loss from that cycle high. Beyond crypto, the asset has lagged other instruments this year, including U.S. Treasuries, silver, and the Swiss franc.
The analysis rests on historical parallels rather than on-chain metrics or macroeconomic forecasting, so whether the current cycle will replicate the timing and depth of prior corrections remains uncertain. No confirmation of this scenario has been offered by other major institutions cited in available reporting.