Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $134.4M inflow over the first two trading days of October, driven by a weak jobs report reducing Fed rate-hike expectations.
Macro & Markets ·
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received $134.4 million in net inflows during October's first two trading days, with $102.7 million flowing in on Thursday and $31.7 million on Friday. This reversal followed a $148.7 million outflow on September 30, which interrupted a nine-session streak of inflows that had run since mid-September. September marked the second-strongest month for these funds since October 2025, accumulating $2.65 billion in net inflows.
The early-October inflows coincided with weaker labor market data. The U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September with unemployment rising to 4.2%, which reduced the probability of an October rate increase from 70% earlier in the week to 14%, according to CME FedWatch. Lower rate-hike expectations typically support demand for risk assets including Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency briefly approached $87,173 on Friday before retreating to $84,786 by Saturday morning.
Broader conviction remains uncertain. Prediction market traders assign a 93% probability that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high in 2026, and year-to-date ETF inflows remain below $1 billion after earlier outflows. Upcoming data points—a CPI report on October 14 and a Federal Reserve meeting on October 28—may influence near-term flows.