Treasury market volatility (MOVE Index) is now highly correlated with stock declines, with bond volatility surging 8% in a week and becoming a key driver of equity selloffs.
Macro & Markets ·
Treasury market volatility has strengthened its grip on equity movements, with the 30-day correlation between the MOVE Index and the S&P 500 reaching -0.58, its highest level since mid-June. The MOVE Index, which tracks yield volatility across 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries, has climbed 8.0% over the past week to 80.7 points, near its highest since mid-May. Sharp increases in bond volatility are now translating into larger stock price declines, a dynamic that previously intensified market selloffs in March and April 2025.