US 2026 midterm elections historically correlate with S&P 500 rallies but Bitcoin declines, though past lows often marked bear-market bottoms.
Macro & Markets ·
Markets are pricing in a 76% probability that Democrats will sweep both chambers of Congress in the 2026 US midterm elections. Historical patterns suggest divergent outcomes for equities and crypto following such outcomes: when a sitting president loses control of both chambers, the S&P 500 has typically gained an average of 2.1% in the month after the election, according to analysis of past midterm cycles.
Bitcoin has shown a different historical pattern around midterm elections. The asset faced declines exceeding 45% following the 2014 midterms and nearly 50% after 2018, according to historical data reviewed by analysts. However, those periods of weakness often coincided with bear-market lows rather than prolonged downturns, suggesting that timing relative to broader cycles may matter as much as the electoral event itself.
The dynamics at play remain unclear: whether the 2026 results will strictly follow historical precedent, how crypto and equities may diverge if political outcomes differ from current market expectations, and whether past correlations hold in a materially different macro environment all remain open questions.