US bond market volatility hits historic highs with MOVE index up 19% weekly and 10Y Treasury yields reaching 5.17%, the highest since June 2007.
Macro & Markets ·
US bond market volatility has reached historic levels, with the MOVE index—a measure of yield swings across 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries—jumping 19% in a single week, marking its largest weekly move since April 2025 and third-largest since the 2022 bear market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 17 basis points to 5.17%, its highest point since June 2007, while the 30-year yield rose 16 basis points past 5.50% for the first time since June 2004, following what markets termed "Liberation Day."
The spike underscores the sensitivity of longer-duration debt to current market conditions. For comparison, the MOVE index surged 29% during the week ending March 17, 2023, when three regional banks collapsed amid the US banking crisis—suggesting this week's moves, while severe, fall short of that peak volatility event.
What remains unclear is whether this volatility signals a durable repricing of Treasury valuations or a temporary shock that may stabilize. The driving forces behind "Liberation Day" and whether they reflect new structural concerns or near-term policy shifts also warrant monitoring.