US consumer inflation expectations ease to 4.5% in July
Macro & Markets ·
Median household forecasts for inflation over the coming year dropped to roughly 4.5%, though a majority still anticipate higher interest rates ahead.
Median inflation expectations among US consumers for the next 12 months fell to approximately 4.5% in July, according to data reported by wublockchain.xyz, marking one of the lowest readings since the first quarter of 2025. The figure follows a short-lived jump to about 5.2% in March, which had been the highest level recorded since August 2025.
A separate gauge tracking average inflation expectations also softened, slipping to roughly 5.5% from 6.2% in March. Both the median and average measures now sit close to 1.5 percentage points beneath the highs reached in April 2025, a period that followed the tariff actions widely referred to as "Liberation Day."
Despite the pullback in inflation forecasts, sentiment on interest rates has not shifted in tandem. About 61.3% of consumers surveyed still expect borrowing costs to climb over the next year, a share that held steady from June, according to the same reporting from wublockchain.xyz. The gap between falling price expectations and persistent rate-hike expectations suggests households remain cautious even as headline inflation pressures appear to ease.
The inflation data circulated alongside separate commentary at the ASEAN Tech Summit, where Changpeng Zhao argued that illegal activity within crypto markets accounts for roughly 0.0014% of transactions, a rate he described as about 100 times lower than the 2% to 5% range typically cited for illicit finance in traditional banking. He pointed to blockchain transparency as the underlying reason for the disparity, a claim that circulated in the same news cycle as the consumer inflation figures, per posts shared on x.com.
Four distinct sources were tracked covering this broader news cluster, spanning both the macroeconomic data on consumer sentiment and the crypto-related remarks from the summit. The two threads are unrelated in substance but surfaced together within the same reporting window.
What remains unclear is whether the divergence between softening inflation expectations and steady rate-hike forecasts will persist into upcoming survey periods, or whether one measure will eventually converge with the other. Also unresolved is how policymakers will interpret the unchanged 61.3% rate-hike expectation figure against the backdrop of easing price forecasts, and whether it signals continued caution among consumers about the durability of the disinflation trend.