US debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 156–213% by 2050, with forecasts assuming no recession.
Macro & Markets ·
The Congressional Budget Office projects the US debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 156% by 2050, a 57 percentage point increase from the current 99%, while the Treasury Department estimates the ratio could reach 213% over the same timeframe. Both projections exclude intragovernmental debt held by federal trust funds and assume no recession occurs during the period, suggesting actual debt trajectories could diverge significantly from current forecasts.