US inflation indicators show sharp acceleration with ISM Services Prices Paid Index at 72.6, suggesting CPI could rise to 6.0% and core PCE above 4.0% within six months.
Macro & Markets ·
The ISM Services Prices Paid Index reached 72.6 in August, up 2.3 points and marking its highest level since July 2022, with a 9.6-point increase over the past six months. Based on historical patterns where this index leads consumer price measures by approximately six months, the current reading suggests CPI could climb to 6.0% from July's 3.4% and core PCE could exceed 4.0% from 3.3%.