US job losses cooler than expected in July push Fed rate-hike odds below 50%, triggering Bitcoin rally to $65,300 monthly high.
Macro & Markets ·
US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, sharply below forecasts for an 80,000 gain, prompting markets to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% and included substantial downward revisions to prior months' employment figures. The weaker labor print shifted market odds on a September Fed rate decision from favoring a 0.25% increase to pricing in a pause, with Bitcoin climbing to $65,340 on the day as risk assets broadly rallied.
The employment miss came alongside prior month revisions that lowered May and June combined job growth by 103,000. Analysts noted that the combination of negative current data and historical downward adjustments signaled potential softening in labor-market momentum, a reading that traders linked to possible Federal Reserve policy easing. Bitcoin and equities, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, gained on the expectation that sustained weakness could support liquidity relief from the central bank.
What remains unclear is whether this single month's weakness reflects a durable trend or a temporary fluctuation in hiring. One analyst cautioned that while orderly slowdown may support risk assets, a print weak enough to trigger growth concerns could still weigh on markets even as rate-cut odds improve. The September Fed decision and the Jackson Hole economic symposium later in August will likely provide further signals on the durability of labor-market softness.