US job losses trigger 30-point drop in September rate-hike probability, sending gold above $4,400/oz.
Macro & Markets ·
Market odds for a September Federal Reserve rate increase have contracted sharply to 40%, down from above 70% just days prior, following unexpected job losses in the US economy—the third largest monthly decline since the pandemic began in 2020. The shift in rate-hike expectations reflects a rapid reassessment of monetary policy conditions in response to the labor market data.
Gold has climbed above $4,400 per ounce amid the repricing, as investors move capital toward haven assets in the wake of the weaker employment figures. The rally underscores how labor data directly influences both interest-rate expectations and precious-metals valuations through shifts in real-yield outlooks.
What remains unclear is the magnitude of the job loss, the specific timing of the data release, and whether additional labor-market reports or economic indicators will sustain or reverse this swing in rate-hike probability before the September policy decision.