US job openings data quality is deteriorating as BLS survey participation and response rates hit historic lows, raising questions about labor market reliability.
Macro & Markets ·
The reliability of US job openings data is eroding as survey participation collapses to historic lows. Only around one in four businesses now agree to participate in the BLS's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), a participation rate near the lowest since 2022 and far below the 50–70% range that prevailed before the pandemic. Response rates have deteriorated even more sharply: the first closing response rate—measuring firms that submit data in time for the initial estimate—stands at roughly 30%, halved over the past decade and near the lowest proportion ever recorded.
The deterioration extends to subsequent responses as well, with the second closing response rate at approximately 35%, also approaching historic lows. This means the BLS releases official job openings figures based on a small fraction of responses, then revises them as additional data arrives. The structural collapse in both initiation and response rates over the past ten years compounds concerns about data quality.
The mounting gap between reported figures and the actual respondent base raises questions about how accurately the published JOLTS numbers reflect true labor market conditions. Whether these declining rates reflect methodological challenges, respondent fatigue, or structural shifts in survey methodology remains unclear.