US jobs data disappoints in July, cutting Federal Reserve rate hike odds to 44%, but Bitcoin's modest 0.7% rise suggests investor sentiment has shifted.
Macro & Markets ·
Traders reassessed the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 44% after US non-farm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, a figure that exceeded expectations for weakness. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised downward the combined employment changes for May and June, totaling a loss of 103,000 jobs, while average monthly job creation fell to 34,000. Bitcoin responded with a modest 0.7% gain, reaching $65,300, alongside broader equity gains and declining Treasury yields.
The muted cryptocurrency reaction stands in contrast to historical market volatility around US employment data. The shift underscores a potential realignment in how investors are pricing in monetary policy expectations, particularly as expectations for near-term rate increases have diminished significantly.
What remains unresolved is whether this dampened response reflects genuine conviction among market participants that rate hikes are now substantially less likely, or whether it signals evolving volatility dynamics in Bitcoin trading around macroeconomic releases. The extent to which further deterioration in labor data might reignite price movement also remains to be tested.