US nonfarm payroll revisions have consistently trended downward since 2023, with 793k jobs revised down in 20 months, suggesting labor market weakness despite positive headline reports.
Macro & Markets ·
US jobs data has been revised downward in 16 of the past 20 months by a combined 793,000 positions, averaging 39,650 monthly revisions since early 2025. Recent August and July figures each saw downward adjustments totaling 60,000 jobs, and when historical revision patterns are applied to September's reported gain of 29,000, the implied figure would suggest a contraction of 10,650 nonfarm payroll jobs for that month.