US Treasury bonds have posted their worst 10-year performance in history, returning -2% annually versus +15% for stocks, signaling a structural shift in traditional safe-haven assets.
Macro & Markets ·
US Treasury bonds have delivered their worst 10-year performance on record, with 15+ year Treasuries returning negative 2% annually over the past decade—only the second period since 1936 to post negative 10-year annualized returns. Over the same stretch, US stocks gained 15% per year on average while commodities returned 11% annually, starkly contrasting the pre-pandemic era when Treasuries averaged 9% yearly gains over a 10-year horizon.
The decline has been visible in popular bond vehicles, with the TLT bond-tracking ETF falling 26% since the start of 2020, including a maximum drawdown of 34%. The shift marks a structural departure from the traditional role of government debt as a reliable safe-haven asset, raising questions about portfolio construction and risk management strategies built on historical bond behavior.
The extent to which this reflects temporary cyclical factors versus a sustained reallocation away from long-duration fixed income remains unclear, as does whether yields and valuations have stabilized at levels that could attract renewed demand.