Wintermute flags macro headwinds as spot BTC and ETH ETFs see largest weekly outflows since June, with recovery contingent on Treasury yield stabilization.
Macro & Markets ·
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suffered their heaviest weekly outflows since late June, with U.S. products shedding $679 million and $542 million respectively. Over the same period, Bitcoin declined 3.2% while Ethereum fell 7.0%. Wintermute attributed the pressure to weakening capital inflows into crypto assets, contrasting the sector's momentum-dependent flows with equity markets' reliance on earnings fundamentals.
The trading firm identified Treasury yield stability and a reversal of ETF redemptions as prerequisites for a sustained rebound. Absent those conditions, Bitcoin faces continued vulnerability to volatility and downside exposure, while speculative altcoin trades warrant caution. Wintermute retained a constructive long-term stance but signaled readiness to shift to a more defensive posture should the 30-year Treasury yield push past 5.64% or Bitcoin repeatedly fail to sustain levels above $82,500.
The outlook hinges on macro factors beyond crypto's direct control—chiefly U.S. interest rate expectations and their effect on risk appetite. Whether the recent outflow surge reflects tactical liquidation or a structural shift in investor positioning remains unclear.