CLARITY Act passage odds drop to 31%-35% as Washington negotiations stall over ethics provisions and state attorney general authority.
Regulation & Gov ·
Passage odds for the CLARITY Act have declined sharply to 31%-35%, down from peaks of 70% earlier in the year, as Washington negotiations stumble over ethics provisions and the scope of state attorney general enforcement powers. The coming weekend represents a critical juncture: the White House is preparing a revised ethics proposal that would address whether state attorneys general retain authority to enforce certain ethics rules against federal officials. Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Ruben Gallego are leading bipartisan discussions and have signaled dissatisfaction with an earlier White House offer, pushing instead for state attorneys general to retain the ability to sue the Department of Justice over enforcement lapses.
Time is running out, as the Senate begins its August recess next week, leaving legislators a narrow window to advance the bill before attention pivots to midterm elections. The White House's ethics language would remain active only through January 2029, with uncertainty about what follows. If momentum stalls before the recess, analysts expect passage prospects to deteriorate significantly.
Michael Saylor has recently restated his support for advancing the bill through bipartisan effort, stating that while Bitcoin will succeed regardless of legislation, "America needs clarity for digital assets."