National Sheriffs' Association shifts to neutrality on CLARITY Act, but Senate vote delays and lower prediction market odds reduce 2026 passage likelihood to 30%.
Regulation & Gov ·
The National Sheriffs' Association has moved away from its previous opposition to the CLARITY Act, adopting a neutral stance on the crypto market structure bill. The group's shift reflects acknowledgment that the legislation's complexity and ongoing negotiations warrant allowing the legislative process to proceed without further law enforcement obstruction. This development potentially removes a significant barrier that had weighed on Senate Democrats whose support may prove decisive for the bill's advancement.
Procedural and scheduling obstacles have substantially narrowed the window for the CLARITY Act's passage this year. A Senate procedural vote was initially set for mid-September, but canceled House sessions in late September have eliminated legislative days and compressed the timeline before the midterms. With the House adjourning before substantive Senate debate can conclude, legislative activity is now expected to resume only during a post-election lame-duck session.
Likelihood estimates for 2026 enactment have contracted sharply. Galaxy Research lowered its probability assessment to 30% following the missed August recess vote, while prediction markets price passage odds even lower, below 20%. Whether the NSA's neutrality proves sufficient to unlock the Democratic votes required for the initial procedural motion—which needs 60 votes and Republican backing—remains uncertain.