Odds of the CLARITY Act passing decline despite Trump administration efforts to advance crypto regulation.
Regulation & Gov ·
Passage of the CLARITY Act—a sweeping U.S. digital asset framework that would establish regulatory lanes between the SEC and CFTC, define token classes, and limit stablecoin yields—faces declining odds despite the Trump administration's push to advance crypto regulation. Galaxy Research cut 2026 passage odds to 50-50 as the Senate calendar becomes crowded, dimming prospects for the bill even as lawmakers continue efforts to resolve outstanding obstacles.
The bill, which aims to end "regulation by enforcement" and create a comprehensive market structure, has cleared the House with bipartisan support. Recent negotiations have centered on resolving stablecoin yield language, including a draft that would ban passive yield while preserving activity rewards. The White House has also begun meeting with law enforcement groups to address concerns over the bill's illicit-finance provisions.
What remains uncertain is whether the Senate will find time on a crowded legislative calendar to advance the measure before other competing priorities and calendar constraints narrow the window for passage in 2026.